Update for 20100510

Late update, but I didn't have any trades today! ZzZzZ...

Down 6.7% month-to-date

Down 11.1% since inception (4/19/2010)

Update for 20100507

FYI, I didn't get caught up in any of that S&P crap yesterday afternoon.

I had another losing trade today, and then I dozed off (oops!) and missed the entry on another trade that's currently in positive territory. I would be closing it at 12pm per my rules, no matter where it was. Since I'm not taking any new trades after 10am on Fridays, it's time to go to bed.

Down 6.7% month-to-date

Down 11.1% since inception (4/19/2010)

PS: According to this risk-of-ruin equation, I will spend at least 38% of my time below my current 11.1% drawdown, and I have a 28% chance of losing 1 standard deviation of my average return/month from any point on the equity curve. While the numbers look bad, and a 4 loss streak (current) following a 5 loss streak (last week) is a shitty way to start a career, it seems to be Business As Usual. (Numbers used in calculations: 10% average return/month with a standard deviation of 15%)

On the bright side, by those same equations, there's only a 1.1% chance that I will ever reach a 50% drawdown, where I would then need a 100% return to get back to where I was. Pretty volatile possibilities, really.

Update for 20100506

Took a trade early on today for a loss. The Euro has been plummeting lately (500p in three days), and the trade signaled a buy. I didn't want to, but I took the trade, sticking to the system.

The Swiss National Bank pulled some tomfoolery this morning too, jacking USD/CHF and EUR/CHF around big time. I wasn't in the market though.

Down 4.5% month-to-date

Down 9% since inception for another new equity low!

Update for 20100504 and 20100505

Forgot to update for the 4th and 5th, but nothing happened on those days anyway. The euro and franc were practically perfectly inversely correlated!

Down 2.25% month-to-date

Down 6.9% since inception (new equity low? oh no!)

Update for 20100503

Had one trade today, and the setup wasn't really that good. It was a large pattern on the 60m chart, and stagnated for a long time until a big move against me took out my stop.

Down 2.25% month-to-date

Down 6.9% since inception (new equity low? oh no!)

April Results

Closing out April with a boring day without any new trades. At today's open, yesterday's trade was still alive, and later closed for a loss. I am down 4.7% since inception, but if I had started trading April 1, I would be up 2.6%. So a lackluster month following the results of Jan-March, but it's well within the expected results of the system.

Update for 20100429

Took a trade after 12pm because it popped up on the 15m while waiting for confirmation of a trade on the last bar of the 30m that didn't end up confirming. Maybe it was a bad idea, but really, in all my back testing, I tested taking trades until 1pm, and they were even mostly winners...

I dunno. Going to bed with an open trade for the first time though! Will update this post with status. It's still at break-even right now.

Otherwise, down 2.6% since inception (4/19/2010) without counting the open trade.

Edit: it was a loss.