Update for 20100528

I took four trades today for two wins and two losses. I had mixed feelings about a couple of them, but at the end of the day my equity curve is indeed higher! This closes out the month of May (the 31st is a US and UK bank holiday, so I won't be trading), and locks in a 16.4% return for the month! My trading for the last half of April resulted in a 4.8% loss.

Up 16.4% month-to-date

Up 10.9% since inception (4/19/2010)

Update for 20100527

One trade today, one win! New equity high!

One trade I didn't take: it ever-so-slightly clipped the MA on an E/U 60m long setup that would have been a winner. I didn't count these in my back tests, so I didn't take it live.

Up 14.9% month-to-date

Up 9.4% since inception (4/19/2010)

Update for 20100526

I got lucky today. I missed an entry on a trade that would have been a loser, and then I had correct entries on two trades that were winners, making it the best day yet, and resulting in a NEW EQUITY HIGH!!!

Up 11.5% month-to-date

Up 6.2% since inception (4/19/2010)

Update for 20100525

No trades today!

Up 5.2% month-to-date

Up 0.1% since inception (4/29/2010)

Update for 20100524

Today was a Swiss, German, and French bank holiday, but I traded anyway. I think I'll only take off if one or both of the US/UK has a bank holiday. Two wins and Two losses put me back over my starting capital amount! It's been almost a month in drawdown from that point, with even longer since my last equity high. I'll get back there, just might take a little bit, and I'm prepared to wait if I have to!

Up 5.2% month-to-date

Up (!!!) 0.1% since inception (4/29/2010)

Update for 20100521

I took a vacation day today, but had I been trading, there would have been one win and one loss for a small gain. I'm only going to report my actual gains/losses in the numbers, so I will repost them from Thursday.

Up (!!!) 3.8% month-to-date

Down 1.2% since inception (4/19/2010)

Update for 20100520

Today was the best single day yet. 3 wins, 1 full loss, and one 1/3 loss. All of the setups looked great!

Up (!!!) 3.8% month-to-date

Down 1.2% since inception (4/19/2010)

Update for 20100519

One euro long today for a win! It was a pretty wacky setup that occurred on the last bar that I would have taken a trade off of. Again, I'm sticking to the rules. It's paying off! Pretty sure I would be around 6% lower return if I had not been so stringent so far.

Down 2% month-to-date

Down 6.7% since inception (4/19/2010)

Update for 20100518

Couple of back-dated updates!

Two losses today, with one late entry due to me not paying attention. I tried to make up for it with the SL sizes but after I committed to a position size all it did was end up making me lose a little more on the trade than normal. From now on, if I miss an entry, I'll be placing limit orders.

Down 4.9% month-to-date

Down 9.4% since inception (4/19/2010)

Update for 20100517

Had an early trade on the euro today, and it was a winner. It was a buy, and I was hesitant because of the euro at new lows recently, but it turned right around after I bought and went on to 120 pips after some drawdown (my target was half that). There was another trade that popped up, but since the pattern was so big that it encompassed some of last week, I didn't trade it. I guess that's a new rule!

I think it makes sense, even if the action over the weekend didn't lead to any gaps/strange behavior. I'm sure it's just one of those "well it doesn't really matter" things, because it won't happen that often.

Up (!!!) 0.3% month-to-date

Down 4.5% since inception (4/19/2010)

Update for 20100514

I had one trade today that was a win. Markets really went on a run after that, and it makes me want to find a way to trade and capitalize big on these large daily runs. I guess with all the euro selling recently it makes it look great, and I don't know how it would perform in a ranging market. Stuff to put on the list to think about!

Down 2.6% month-to-date

Down 7.3% since inception (4/19/2010)

Here's the latest equity curve:

Update for 20100513

Had two trades today, and both were losers. It wasn't a new equity low though! Anyway, it looked like one would win and one would lose (both long on E/U and U/C) but they whipped around a lot and my stops were hit on both.

Down 5.5% month-to-date

Down 10% since inception (4/19/2010)

Update for 20100512

Opened a euro short late in the day, and it rocketed towards my TP level before slowing down. TP is at 1.2613 and it's hovering around 1.2643 right now after getting as low as 1.2626. Time for bed though! Hoping this follows through as another win!

Edit: Trade was a win, so updated totals are below.

Down 1.1% month-to-date

Down 5.7% since inception (4/19/2010)

Update for 20100511

One trade today for a win! Nice to break that losing streak.

Down 3.9% month-to-date

Down 8.5% since inception (4/19/2010)

Update for 20100510

Late update, but I didn't have any trades today! ZzZzZ...

Down 6.7% month-to-date

Down 11.1% since inception (4/19/2010)

Update for 20100507

FYI, I didn't get caught up in any of that S&P crap yesterday afternoon.

I had another losing trade today, and then I dozed off (oops!) and missed the entry on another trade that's currently in positive territory. I would be closing it at 12pm per my rules, no matter where it was. Since I'm not taking any new trades after 10am on Fridays, it's time to go to bed.

Down 6.7% month-to-date

Down 11.1% since inception (4/19/2010)

PS: According to this risk-of-ruin equation, I will spend at least 38% of my time below my current 11.1% drawdown, and I have a 28% chance of losing 1 standard deviation of my average return/month from any point on the equity curve. While the numbers look bad, and a 4 loss streak (current) following a 5 loss streak (last week) is a shitty way to start a career, it seems to be Business As Usual. (Numbers used in calculations: 10% average return/month with a standard deviation of 15%)

On the bright side, by those same equations, there's only a 1.1% chance that I will ever reach a 50% drawdown, where I would then need a 100% return to get back to where I was. Pretty volatile possibilities, really.

Update for 20100506

Took a trade early on today for a loss. The Euro has been plummeting lately (500p in three days), and the trade signaled a buy. I didn't want to, but I took the trade, sticking to the system.

The Swiss National Bank pulled some tomfoolery this morning too, jacking USD/CHF and EUR/CHF around big time. I wasn't in the market though.

Down 4.5% month-to-date

Down 9% since inception for another new equity low!

Update for 20100504 and 20100505

Forgot to update for the 4th and 5th, but nothing happened on those days anyway. The euro and franc were practically perfectly inversely correlated!

Down 2.25% month-to-date

Down 6.9% since inception (new equity low? oh no!)

Update for 20100503

Had one trade today, and the setup wasn't really that good. It was a large pattern on the 60m chart, and stagnated for a long time until a big move against me took out my stop.

Down 2.25% month-to-date

Down 6.9% since inception (new equity low? oh no!)