Monday, December 31, 2007

Update for 20071231

Current positions:
  • USDCAD: (short) profit at +226. Big candle against me today. Four tests of the fib line I have drawn show bullish support. I moved my stop to breakeven. We'll see what happens at the 23.6 fib level, and if stochs cross up 23.6.
  • AUDUSD: (long) profit at +36. Daily ST stochs are turning down, 4h stochs headed down, weekly ST stochs crossing up through the 14 period stoch. This one is still anyone's ballgame.
  • EURUSD: (long) profit at +93. More big moves against my position, but who knows, it could have been stuff because it was the last day of the year. We'll see what happens.
  • USDCHF: (short) profit at +57. Same as the rest of them really.
New positions:
  • I didn't take that JPY short because of conflicting h4 and weekly trends.
Pairs to watch:
  • GBPUSD.
  • It seems like the holidays are tricky times to trade, so I'm hoping this correction today was just that, and the positions will keep going the way they were.

Friday, December 28, 2007

Update for 20071228

Current positions:
  • USDCAD: (short) profit at +313. Past two bars have been doji-esque, we'll have to see if the bears can hold their ground. Short term stochs beginning to cross up the 14 period, we'll have to see if it consolidates on Sunday (no exit) or if we start to fishnet (exit).
  • AUDUSD: (long) profit at +33. Price kind of bounced off of a fib level, but remained down for the day. Shortest term stochs beginning to hook around, we'll have to see what happens.
  • EURUSD: (long) profit at +238. Huge breakout of a fib level, will there be a retracement? ST stochs beginning to decelerate, 4h stochs roped in overbought.
  • USDCHF: (short) profit at +138. Closed right on the 23.6 fib level, stochs on the daily still strong down, 14 is at 44. Four-hour stochs roped up in oversold.
New positions:
  • Must wait till Sunday; however, short on the USDJPY looks iffy.
Pairs to watch:
  • GBPUSD looking to go long in this intermediate downtrend maybe on sun/mon/tues. I have a price channel drawn, and price is sitting in the middle of it, we'll have to wait and see.
  • USDJPY for possible short on sunday, but again, I'm already open on 4 positions (two shorting the dollar) and if this signal isn't screaming SELL ME NOW then I probably won't take it.

Thursday, December 27, 2007

Update for 20071227

Current Positions:
  • USDCAD: (short) profit at +320, stochs in the oversold region looking to turn up, might have to exit soon. looks like it bounced off of the 38.2 fib level.
  • AUDUSD: (long) profit at +40, off the high of the day, but broke through the 38.2 fib support level, hope it keeps going.
  • EURUSD: (long) profit at +116, off the high of the day as well, broke through 23.6 fib level, down for the new day that started at 6pm EST so far, but it's early and anything can change.
New Positions:
  • USDCHF: Short at 1.1402. The stochs were combed and broke through the 76.4 line on the way down at the close of the bar, weekly short term stochs are starting to slow down like they were with the last two highs on the weekly stochs that produced significant downturns. Only thing I'm worried about is even though we may have seen it bounce off of the 50% fib level, it's right up at the 38.2 level. Here's hoping it breaks through.
  • EURAUD: I did not take this trade because this pair is ranging like whoa.
Pairs to watch:
  • Short the USDJPY in a few days?
  • Long on GBPUSD in a few days?
Images:

Wednesday, December 26, 2007

Update for 20071226

Preface:
  • Going to try a new money management strategy to see how well it works. Unfortunately, the way my demo account is setup, it is risking too much on one trade, so I won't be able to do it like this in a real account until the balance rises a bit:
  • Initial position will be 3 whateverlots, exiting one on a normal exit signal, moving the remaining stops to break even, exiting a second lot once we have another 100-200p profit depending on local S/R, and trailing the third 100-200p until it gets stopped out.
Current Positions:
  • USDCAD: short profit sitting at +322
New Positions:
  • EURUSD: Long at 1.4485
  • AUDUSD: Long at 0.8729
Pairs to watch:

  • USDCHF: going down? Short soon on the daily, we'll have to see if the weekly turns down around that time.
  • USDJPY: keep an eye on it
Images:


Monday, December 24, 2007

Update for 20071224

Preface:
  • Alpari demo accounts stopped feeding price data at 1pm EST today, so this is what they were then.
Current Positions:
  • USDCAD: profit sitting at +278
New Positions:
  • Will be long on AUDUSD when the markets open back up as long as the 14 stoch is still above the 23.6 level. Hold me; I'm scared! Hoping it's not like the last two signals and we see a continuation of the uptrend. Seems to have bounced off of the 50% retracement level, but we could see resistance at the 38.2% level which is only 50p away at this point.
Pairs to watch:
  • Euro might turn up soon; cable is lowwwwwwwww.

Sunday, December 23, 2007

Update for 20071223

Current Positions:
  • USDCAD: profit sitting at +215
New Positions:
  • None
Pairs to watch:
  • If aussie stays up on the day, the 14 stoch will be above 23.6. It'll be Christmas though, so I think I'll wait until the day after to make any decisions.
  • The cable, swiss franc, and euro are all itching to come out of their respective oversold/bought areas, as the 5 period stoch is breaking away from the rope.

Friday, December 21, 2007

Update for 20071221

Current Positions:
  • USDCAD: profit sitting at +214
New Positions:
  • Gotta wait for Sunday night.
Pairs to Watch:
  • Aussie ?

Thursday, December 20, 2007

Update for 20071220

Current Positions:
  • USDCAD: profit sitting at +122p. Might have seen a bounce off of a 23.2 fib level from the latest uptrend. Hoping we'll head back down and break through it.
New positions:
  • None.
Pairs to watch:
  • Same 'ole same 'ole.

Wednesday, December 19, 2007

Update for 20071219

Current Positions:
  • USDCAD: profit at +107p
New Positions:
  • None
Pairs to watch
  • Euro and cable stochs moving even lower (<10!). Aussie stoch about the same.
  • swiss franc fanning out, might not be so good to enter even if it does break down 76.4 soon.

Tuesday, December 18, 2007

Update for 20071218

Current Positions:
  • USDCAD: profit sitting at +73
New Positions:
  • None
  • Didn't take GBPCHF because of conflicting trends on D/W/M charts. Also, daily signaled sell while weekly signaled buy.
Pairs to watch:
  • Still looking for euro, assuie, and cable to go long
  • Still looking to short the swiss franc. maybe.

Monday, December 17, 2007

Update for 20071217

Current Positions:
  • USDCAD profit sitting at +88! Let's hope it continues and we'll ride it out for all it's worth.
  • AUDUSD stopped out at ~250p loss :(
New Positions:
  • None.
  • Didn't take EURCHF and EURJPY shorts because the daily charts were pretty sideways.
  • Didn't take USDJPY cause the stochs are fishnetting.
Pairs to watch:
  • euro, aussie, cable, to go long this week?
  • GBPCHF and USDCHF short if they rope up
Images:
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Sunday, December 16, 2007

Update for 20071216

Current positions:
  • AUDUSD: gapped up, profit sitting at -234
  • CADUSD: profit sitting at -50
New positions:
  • None.
Pairs to watch:
  • Short the EURJPY tomorrow?
  • Short USDJPY sometime this week?
  • Short the USDCHF sometime this week?
  • Long on EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD sometime this week?
All these possible signals, one shouldn't trade all of them. Will have to pick the tightest ropes to trade that coincide with local S/R.

Friday, December 14, 2007

Update for 20071214

Current position update:
  • GBPUSD: Stopped out! sadface. ~250p loss
  • AUDUSD: Dangerously close to being stopped out, maybe it'll gap up on sunday?
  • USDCAD: Down (profitable) for the day, profit is sitting still at -41p
New positions:
  • Won't get a new bar printed until Sunday night, but doesn't look like anything
Pairs to watch:
  • The euro, cable, and aussie are looking a little correlated, maybe another try at the long side next week
  • Still watching the swissy to go short
Images:

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Thursday, December 13, 2007

Update for 20071213

Current Position Update:
  • GBPUSD: stochs still combed, price didn't hit any new lows, although the position is down 52p
  • AUDUSD: fishnetting starting to occur, we'll have to wait out the bar close to see what happens. Price didn't hit any new lows, even though the position is down 81p
  • USDCAD: I drew a fib retracement from Feb to Nov (07) and price was testing the 38.2 level. Last closed candle broke out above the level, which also happened to be where I entered short at. Down 78p on this one. Stochs are starting to consolidate in the overbought area, will they dip below 76.4 again or will I get stopped out?
New Positions:

  • None.

Pairs to watch:

  • GBPCHF might be rolling over into a downtrend?

Wednesday, December 12, 2007

Initial positions

Current positions:

So here's where I stand right now using the rainbow MA/MTF stochastics system shared by user Ingot54 at babypips.com/forums :

long 0.01 lots GBPUSD @ 2.0461 SL 2.0170
long 0.01 lots AUDUSD @ 0.8856 SL 0.8600
short 0.01 lots USDCAD @ 1.0133 SL 1.0383

I'm trying to keep my SL around 250p, give or take a few pips depending on where the nearest S/R is.

these trades aren't doing much right now, I'm breakeven on the cable, down 19p on the aussie, and up 8p on the loonie.

New positions:

No signals today.

Pairs to watch:

Looking for a rope to form on the USDCHF daily to go short as the weekly rises to overbought

Images:



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AUDUSDGBPUSDUSDCAD