Update for 20110712

Still no pair divergence system trades in July so far. All the Euro zone fears are causing people to dump euros and move money into "safe" currencies, one of which being the swiss franc. EUR/CHF is down 700 pips so far this month. EUR vs. CHF daily correlation over the past 50 days (~beginning of May) is only -45. It's usually much closer to -100 and a reason why I've been able to trade the way I do.

As an alternative for pair divergence, I've been looking at AUD/USD and USD/CAD, but I haven't done anything with them yet.

I'm trying some new trade ideas in the mean time. Some supply/demand price level analysis as well as simple Murrey Math price level trades. No big money on the new ideas so far, but that'll come within the month I hope.

Update for 20110706

Three trades since the last update, with two losses and one win. No trades in July yet.

For the month of June I lost 13.1%. I'm frustrated, but determined.

No change MTD
Up 3% YTD
Up 19% Since inception (4/19/2010)

Update for 20110624

Whoa! I'm still alive!

All kidding aside, it's obvious that I have been slacking with blog updates, and honestly that only hurts myself in the long run. I guess it's hard to tell the world "Hey! I'm not doing as great as I used to be doing!" sometimes, but here goes:

For my one year trading anniversary (4/19/2011), I returned +27% since inception with a theoretical return (no missed entries, all perfectly entered on time) of +43%. My maximum actual drawdown for the first year was 20%, resulting in a CALMAR ratio of 1.35:1.

To catch up on monthly returns since the one year mark, I lost 1% in the month of April whereas I could have had a theoretical gain of +8%. The difference comes from two winning trades that I did not take: one was during a bank holiday, and I was asleep for the other one.

I lost 3.7% in the month of May, with a theoretical loss of 9.3%. I lucked out here with more of the same reasons for discrepancy as in April.

So far for June, I'm down 11.3%! Rough quarter. Theoretical return for June so far is -8.9%. This puts me in my biggest drawdown yet, at 25%.

I'm feeling that opportunity factor of a trading system is pretty important. I'm averaging between 20-30 trades per month, but months like this current June are pretty frustrating in that there have only been 14 system trades, with 6 trading days of no trades popping up at all!

I would love to trade a system with more consistency overall; my current system feels like a coinflip, and I don't even get to flip the coin that often. Hah! Here's the latest equity curve:

The big differences in actual vs. theoretical come mainly from trades where I lost when I should have won. I never mean this in a bitter way, it's just the facts of the case had I entered the setup on time. I've setup my money management so that I lose 3% on losing trades and win 4% on winning trades, so when I mess up, it really shows against the benchmark.

E.g. when I enter late by 5-7 pips for whatever reason, the market bounces off my (closer) stop without hitting what would have been the original, on time trade's stop. Then the market goes on to hit what would have been my original trade's take profit level. The usual cause of distraction is either falling asleep early in the AM (working 1AM-Noon is rough sometimes, no matter the coffee supply!) or simply missing the setup forming while doing something else. I have made adjustments to my sleeping arrangements to help rectify the first, and I have improved my system's alert mechanism for the second.

Down 11.3% MTD

Up 1.5% YTD

Up 20.8% since inception (4/19/2010)

Update for 20110412

Finally had some trades pop up! Bad news was that they were all losers.

Going to bed with one still open, no big deal as SL and TP are set.

Up 1.8% month-to-date

Up 38.4% since inception (4/19/2010)

Update for 20110408

No new trades the last four days! ZzZzZzZ....

Stats unchanged from last update.

Update for 20110404

So I closed out March up 3.5% for my personal trading, and that's a big bummer, because I should have returned closer to 14.7%. I missed 2 winning trades, 1 losing trade, and entered 1 trade a few seconds late, giving me a bad fill, ending up being stopped out to the pip.

Anyway, April is looking good so far with two wins under my belt. Sort of anxious to see what my one year return will come in at in a few weeks!

Up 8.2% month-to-date

Up 44.9% since inception (4/19/2010)

Update for 20110328

Had two losses today, with the first one hitting my stop to the exact pipette! Ouch!

Up 1.8% month-to-date

Up 34.6% since inception (4/19/2010)

Update for 20110323

A few trades later, a new equity high appears! (by 0.1% for the actual account, 0.9% for theoretical)

Up 7.3% month-to-date

Up 40.7% since inception (4/19/2010)

Update for 20110311

So I went ahead and increased my fixed fractional position sizing money management to 3% lost and 4% won, per trade. This will increase drawdowns, but I believe it will benefit me in the long run. I was going to wait until I was exactly a year in, but that would be just in the interest of easier reporting on what my first year would have been, and at the end of the day my account balance matters more than doing a few more calculations in Excel.

Didn't have any trades today, but a few closed from yesterday.

Link for bigger chart here.

Up 0.9% month-to-date

Up 33.5% since inception (4/19/2010)

Update for 20110308

ZzZzZzZ...

Oh, wait, you mean to tell me I finally stay up during my trading hours and it's boring as all hell?! Of course. Successful trading is supposed to be boring, they say.

Had one win, one loss back on the 4th. One trade today for a loss. Market blew through my SL and never looked back!

Up 4.3% month-to-date

Up 37.4% since inception (4/19/2010)

Update for 20110303

Finally had some trades to begin March with. I missed one due to being asleep (ugggh), but caught the other two. All three were wins, and I think it would have been my most profitable day (by raw $) so far had I caught the first trade. It marks a new equity high on the theoretical equity curve (+51.2%), and increases the gap between my actual results and theoretical ones :\

Up 6% month-to-date

Up 39.4% since inception (4/19/2010)

Update for 20110225

Should have had two wins today, but I fell asleep and missed the second one. I blame lack of coffee (and the lacking self discipline to always make sure I'm "ready to go" for work) and this new allergy medication. Here's what the equity curve is looking like though, sitting behind my theoretical gain.

Up 10.3% month-to-date

Up 34.3% since inception (4/19/2010)

Update for 20110214

Happy Valentines Day! Or Forever Alone Day. Or Anna Howard Shaw Day. Or Monday.

Anyway, one win today to push me to a new equity high, so that's exciting. Still trying to think of a way to squeeze more profit out of this system. I want to pyramid as I go into profit, such as is mentioned in Reminiscences... and by Dennis Gartman -- we'll see.

Up 9.7% month-to-date

Up 33.6% since inception (4/19/2010)

Update for 20110211

Ending the week on a high note! My theoretical return (taking every trade the system throws at me, even when on vacation) is currently ahead of my actual return by about 2 full wins worth. Here's why:

Yesterday I entered a few minutes late on a setup, and my stop loss was closer than it would have been had I entered at the correct time. Wouldn't you know it, price retraced to my actual stop loss before going on to what would have been the take profit level, but it wouldn't have touched the stop loss if I had entered on time! Shit happens, no big deal. This scenario has worked in my favor in the past, and I'm sure the theoretical/actual lines on the equity curve will continue to oscillate back and forth as long as I trade this system.

Up 6.4% month-to-date

Up 30.3% since inception (4/19/2010)

Update for 20110201

Starting February strong with a new equity high! Two wins today. Almost a third?

I have been feeling sick the last day or so, and it's thrown my sleep schedule off. I woke up late today and noticed that a trade setup had formed and already passed by, with profit being hit at first glance. I looked at the news forecast though, and noticed that the entry time would have coincided with Swiss retail sales numbers. Oanda being a stickler for hiking spreads around news releases, and squeaking a profit out on that trade by only 5 pips as indicated anyway, there's no telling what would have actually happened. If I had received an unfavorable spread/fill upon entry, price might have never reached my new target.

I guess I can check tomorrow at http://fxtrade.oanda.com/why/spreads/recent

Up 6.1% month-to-date

Up 30% since inception (4/19/2010)

Update for 20110131

Closing off January with a gain of 7.4%. The gain puts me right up next to my previous equity high, so here's hoping for a winning trade to start off February!

Up 7.4% month-to-date

Up 23.6% since inception (4/19/2010)

Update for 20110125

New equity high today! Just by a bit, though (1% higher than the last). I feel like I'm finally getting back into the groove after my Christmas break, and I'm looking forward to staying active in the gym and at the trading desk.

Up 7.6% month-to-date

Up 23.8% since inception (4/19/2010)

Update for 2010 End

My apologies for lack of updates if anyone is out there following! I took my Christmas vacation starting December 17th, and at that point I was up 1.5% on the month and 16.4% since inception.

I was beating my theoretical return by 3% due to entering late on a trade, getting a better price, and avoiding a dip to what should have been the SL level had I been on time.

So far in January, I'm up 3% month-to-date and up 19.3% since inception. I took vacation for MLK Jr. day and missed a winning trade; c'est la vie.