Update for 20100507

FYI, I didn't get caught up in any of that S&P crap yesterday afternoon.

I had another losing trade today, and then I dozed off (oops!) and missed the entry on another trade that's currently in positive territory. I would be closing it at 12pm per my rules, no matter where it was. Since I'm not taking any new trades after 10am on Fridays, it's time to go to bed.

Down 6.7% month-to-date

Down 11.1% since inception (4/19/2010)

PS: According to this risk-of-ruin equation, I will spend at least 38% of my time below my current 11.1% drawdown, and I have a 28% chance of losing 1 standard deviation of my average return/month from any point on the equity curve. While the numbers look bad, and a 4 loss streak (current) following a 5 loss streak (last week) is a shitty way to start a career, it seems to be Business As Usual. (Numbers used in calculations: 10% average return/month with a standard deviation of 15%)

On the bright side, by those same equations, there's only a 1.1% chance that I will ever reach a 50% drawdown, where I would then need a 100% return to get back to where I was. Pretty volatile possibilities, really.